UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal Betting Analysis

Posted by Derrick Harper on December 18, 2020 in

Stephen Thompson and Geoff Neal headline the UFC’s next fight night event. This will be a showdown of two excellent welterweights, in addition to many other fights that you can find on the card that should not disappoint. Let’s have a look at the main bout of the night so you can set down your bets against their UFC odds.

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal Preview

  • Date: Sat, Dec 19, 6:00 PM
  • Venue: UFC Apex
  • Watch on: ESPN+

Main Event Showdown

Stephen Thompson (15-4-1)

Thompson is stepping into this fight while currently being ranked as the fifth best fighter from the welterweight division. In a recent fight, he was able to accomplish a decision victory over Vincente Luque back in November of 2019.

Looking at his fighting resume, you can see that he has seven wins by knockout, one by submission, and seven by decision. In addition, five of those seven knockouts have ended in the first round.

“Wonderboy” strikes with an accuracy of 44 percent and manages a grappling accuracy at 45 percent. He delivers roughly 3.93 significant strikes a minute while also taking on 2.73. You cannot ask for a better ratio ratio for a top level athlete looking to continue to climb.

Thompson usually defends against takedowns at 78 percent and also has a significant strike defense at 59 percent. Per 15 minutes of fight time, he also has put forth 0.36 takedowns.

Geoff Neal (13-2-0)

Neal has made it clear that his current rank of 11th in the welterweight division is not enough. With a seven fight winning streak coming into this fight, this allows him some momentum.

Looking into his fighting resume, it shows off eight wins by knockout, two by submission, and three by decision. There are also six first round finishes in combination of knockouts and submissions.

“Handz of Steel” has a great nickname for his ability to land strikes overall, with an accuracy at 49 percent and a grappling accuracy at 50 percent. He puts forth 6.04 significant strikes a minute and takes on 3.57. As noted above, this is a great example ratio, meaning he can greatly out strike his opponents here.

Neal also boasts a high takedown defense at 92 percent and has a significant strike defense nearing 65 percent. In each 15 minutes, he also has averages of 0.85 takedowns and 0.40 submissions.

Odds For Main Event

The market has this fight going back and forth. For the moneyline, MyBookie has the odds currently sitting at:

  • Thompson: -110
  • Neal: -120

*odds are subject to changes

Potential Winning Pick

If you can look past any small negatives that both of their resumes show, you know you will be in for an excellent fight. These two have nearly identical fighting styles and stats.

Thompson has had an interesting stretch when you look at his last five fights, in which he had three losses. In those losses, however, those were to Tyron Woodley, Darren Till, and Anthony Pettis.

Neal is undefeated since being in the UFC family. Take into account the winning streak, age and athleticism, and this one could be his.

Winning Pick: Neal wins via TKO, at -120