UFC Fight Night Overeem vs. Arlovski Betting Preview

Posted by Aaron . on May 3, 2016 in

On Sunday, UFC Fight Night 87 comes from the Netherlands — the first UFC card ever to appear in that country. The main feature pits Andrei “Pit Bull” Arlovski against Alistair “The Reem” Overeem in a heavyweight bout. Both of these fighters are in the upper half of the division. Overeem is 40-14-0 with 1 no-contest, winning 48% of the time by KO and 43% of the time by submission. Arlovski is 25-11-0 with 1 no-contest. He has won 68% of his decisions by KO and 12% by submission. Find out more about the latest UFC odds here.

UFC Fight Night Overeem vs. Arlovski Betting Preview

When: Sunday, May 8, 2:00pm Eastern time
Where: Rotterdam, Netherlands
Radio: None
Live Stream: UFC Fight Pass, X Box, Amazon Fire TV



Why should you bet on “Pit Bull” Arlovski?

Arlovski is a lot more likely to walk away with a knockout than Overeem. Arlovski’s hands are a lot heavier, and he has fewer bad concussions and knockouts suffered, meaning he has a stronger jaw. The two men both have solid submission defense, although Overeem is about the same here. Arlovski defends 85.19% of takedown attempts, while Overeem only defends 77.94% of them.

Why should you put your money on The Reem?

Overeem is about 20% better at gaining submissions than Arlovski, although Arlovski has a strong history against submission attempts. Overeem is about 10% better at getting opponents to the ground, and he is slightly harder to hit solidly because of his ability to dodge and block big bobs from the opposition. He also outweighs Arlovski by 15 pounds, so it will be tough to get him to the ground. Overeem also has a 5% longer reach.

Expert Pick and Final Prediction

Because he has the heavy hands and is more likely to secure a knockout, I like Arlovski’s chances to bring Overeem down. I’m predicting Arlovski to win by KO.