Royals vs Mets 2015 World Series Game 3 MLB Odds and Game Analysis

Posted by Aaron . on October 30, 2015 in

When the New York Mets swept the Chicago Cubs out of the National League Division Series, the prevailing wisdom was that their superior starting rotation would run some of the same roughshod over the Kansas City Royals and send them home in particularly short order too.

Royals vs Mets 2015 World Series Game 3

Date/Time: Friday, October 30th, 8:07 PM
Location: Citi Field, Flushing, New York
TV: FOX
MLB Odds: Mets -145

One of the ironies for the Mets is that their Game 3 starter, Noah Syndergaard, wasn’t even on the club’s 25-man roster when the season began. He was one of the best rookies in all of baseball this year, and his playoff performance has been that of a veteran. He did lose Game 2 in the NLDS to the Dodgers, but his postseason numbers have been terrific. In two starts and one trip out of the bullpen, his ERA is 2.77 over 13 innings. He has 20 strikeouts and has permitted only 14 base runners.

Noah Syndergaard

The first two starters for the Mets did not finish the job against the Royals. Matt Harvey had a lead in the sixth inning in Game 1, but he coughed it up, permitting three runs. On Wednesday in Game 2, Jacob deGrom finally looked tired, permitting four runs in his five innings.

One reason why Syndergaard is so terrific is that explosive fastball. However, the Kansas City Royals had the best batting average in MLB this season against pitches that were 95 mph or faster, and they have hit the other two fire ballers in the rotation well so far. In two games (23 total innings), the Royals only have 10 strikeouts. When the Royals put the ball in play, good things happen. The Mets have already committed two errors, the first of which gave the Royals the game-winning run in Game 1. When Yoenis Cespedes misplayed that ball off the bat of Alcides Escobar, the Royals ended up with the first inside-the-park home run in World Series play since 1928.

Yordano Ventura

Kansas City sends Yordano Ventura to the plate in Game 3. Ventura was the ace when the postseason started, but his playoff numbers have not been strong: an ERA of 5.09, with no starts going a full six innings. The Mets are only batting .165 in this World Series, and they hav eonly scored four earned runs. Daniel Murphy’s home run magic appears to have tailed off, and he has gone 2 for 9, striking out 4 times. Cespedes has only gone 1 for 10 in this World Series. Ventura is known for his terrific fastball, but he has been fairly easy to hit so far this postseason.

Betting Trends

  • NY Mets is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
  • NY Mets is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games on the road
  • The total has gone OVER in 14 of NY Mets’s last 20 games on the road
  • NY Mets is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Kansas City
  • Kansas City is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City’s last 6 games
  • Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City’s last 6 games at home

Returning to New York means that the Royals will not be able to feature Kendrys Morales in their starting lineup. Their designated hitter will be on the bench as a pinch-hitting option, as pitchers will bat in New York. If the Mets can’t start hitting again, though, they could find themselves in a 3-0 chasm.