Philadelphia vs St. Louis MLB Odds Analysis

Posted by Aaron . on May 3, 2016 in

On Wednesday night, the surprising Philadelphia Phillies take on the St. Louis Cardinals in National League action. The Phillies (15-11) are in third place in the National League East but are playing well above projections for the season after a dreadful 2015. The Cardinals (13-13) are in third place in the National League Central. The Cardinals won the series on opener on Monday, 10-3. Find the latest MLB lines here.

Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals MLB Odds Analysis

When: Wednesday, May 4, 2016, 8:15pm Eastern time
Where: Busch Stadium, St. Louis
TV: FSMW, CSPh
Radio: KMOX 1120 AM St. Louis
Live Stream: MLB.tv
MLB Odds: TBA
Pitching Matchup: Adam Morgan (0-0, 5.40 ERA) (PHI) vs Mike Leake (0-3, 5.83 ERA) (STL)

 

 

Why should you bet on Philadelphia?

The Cardinals are starting the (so far) underwhelming Mike Leake on the mound. In all of his starts in April, he permitted at least four runs. Ryan Howard has a .313 career average against Leake, with a pair of home runs, and Maikel Franco has a .667 average against him (6 AB). The Phillies have found some timely hitting this season so far, which is one reason why they were able to pull off a three-game sweep at division-leading Washington.

Why should you put your money on the Cardinals?

The Cardinals get Adam Morgan pitching for the Phillies. Morgan is a spot starter who slid into Charlie Morton’s spot in the rotation. Morgan did get seven strikeouts in his first start, a five-inning stint against the Indians, but he was unable to get the win, permitting three earned runs. The only Cardinal to get a hit off Morgan in his career is Jedd Gyorko, but the Cardinals went on a tear on Monday, hitting five home runs to swamp the Phils, 10-3. If the Cardinal offense can keep finding fat pitches to hit, then the Cardinals should win this one.

Expert Pick and Final Score Prediction

I like the Phillies to pull off the road win in this one. Leake has been giving the opposition a lot to hit, and the Phillies have been opportunistic so far this season. I’m predicting a 4-3 Philadephia victory.