Philadelphia vs St. Louis MLB Odds Analysis

Posted by Aaron . on May 4, 2016 in

On Thursday afternoon, the Philadelphia Phillies wrap up their four-game set in St. Louis with the Cardinals. The Phillies (16-11) are in third place in the National League East but have won 10 of 12, including sweeps over division-leading Washington and Cleveland. They beat the Cardinals (13-14, 3rd in the NL Central) 1-0 last night behind seven strong innings from Aaron Nola and a bomb from Ryan Howard. Find out more about the latest MLB odds here.

Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals MLB Odds Analysis

When: Thursday, May 5, 1:45pm Eastern time
Where: Busch Stadium, St. Louis
Radio: KMOX 1120 AM St. Louis
Live Stream:
Pitching Matchup: Jerad Eickhoff (1-3, 4.15 ERA) (PHI) vs Jaime Garcia (1-2, 3.73 ERA) (STL)



Why should you bet on Philadelphia?

As hot as the Phillies have been, the Cardinals have been almost as cold. They have lost 5 of 6, including a weekend sweep at the hands of the Washington Nationals, and their offense has been doing nothing at all. Their lone win in that stretch was a 10-3 pounding of the Phillies on Monday. In the five losses, they have lost by a combined 21-6, including two shutouts. Incredibly, they still have a +40 run differential, but they are now seven games behind the red-hot Cubs. On Tuesday, it was an inability to decipher the breaking ball of Aaron Nola, who is not one of the dominant pitchers in baseball, that caused the problems, as well as an inability to take advantage of such opportunities as Matt Carpenter’s double to lead off the game.

Why should you put your money on the Cardinals?

Despite his 1-2 record, Jaime Garcia has been throwing decent stuff so far this year — he’s just been a little inconsistent. He threw a complete-game shutout on April 14, and in his last start, he did permit four runs to the Nationals in the first inning but then held them to just one hit in the next 5 innings. He has limited Ryan Howard to a .143 career average. He has better numbers than the Phillies’ starter, Jerad Eickhoff, who permitted seven runs against the Brewers on April 24. He did grind through his last start on Saturday, permitting only three runs in six innings against the Indians.

Expert Pick and Final Score Prediction

Eickhoff does not have the plus breaking ball that Nola has, so I think the Cardinals will be able to find and drive these pitches — if they are out of their offensive slump. It’s only a matter of time before the Cards turn the corner, and Garcia is showing signs of life on the mound. I’m predicting a 5-3 St. Louis win.