Cleveland at Boston ALDS Game 3 Betting Pick & Prediction

Posted by Peter Boysen on October 10, 2016 in

Despite losing Danny Salazar and Carlos Carrasco from their starting rotation, the Cleveland Indians have still roared out to a 2-0 lead over the Boston Red Sox in their best-of-five American League Division Series. The other Division Series has already ended, as the Toronto Blue Jays won the wild card and then swept the hapless Texas Rangers right out of the postseason. The Tribe has pounded out 11 runs in the first two games, led by Jason Kipnis and Jose Ramirez, who have combined for eight base hits and three RBI. Lonnie Chisenhall has also been a beast, knocking in four runs in just eight at-bats. Given the struggles that Boston has faced on the mound, can they hold off the Indians from a sweep? Check out all of our MLB lines for the postseason.

Cleveland at Boston ALDS Game 3 Betting Pick, Prediction & TV Info

When: Monday, Oct. 10, 6 PM ET
Where: Fenway Park, Boston
Probable pitchers (away/home): Josh Tomlin/Clay Buchholz
RadioCleveland / Boston
MLB Odds: Boston (-138) / Cleveland (+128), O/U 9.5
Pitching Matchup: Josh Tomlin (CLE) vs Clay Buchholz (BOS)

Why should you bet on the Red Sox?

The Red Sox posted the best offensive numbers in all of baseball this year, and their ballpark is built to permit instant offense. In Game 2, the Indians locked the Red Sox offense down to just three hits and no runs, and in the first two games, Indian pitching has produced 22 strikeouts. In front of the home crowd, I like Big Papi to uncork some monster hits in that clutch way that he has — after all, he did set the record for home runs in a player in his last season. He has produced in the clutch so many times — with 17 postseason home runs —  that it is hard to see him failing to do so in his last postseason.

Why should you put your money on the Indians?

Josh Tomlin is the third starter in this series, but he has more than decent stuff. During the regular season, he went 13-9 with a 4.40 ERA, striking out 118 men. This game marks his first postseason appearance, but he has the confidence of a 2-0 lead at his back. The Tribe has struck early in the first two games of this series, putting eight runs on the board in the first three innings combined from the contests. The Red Sox are starting Clay Buchholz, who once was the Boston ace but has struggled this year, going 8-10 with a 4.78 ERA. In the postseason for his career, Buchholz has also struggled, posting a 4.21 ERA. That does not look like the numbers of a top-flight pitcher, and I like the Tribe to take advantage.

My Betting Pick and Final Score Prediction

Boston has had a terrific season, but one cold reality of postseason baseball is that when a team’s offense goes cold, they tend to press — which just makes things worse. I don’t see the Red Sox climbing out of this hole, and I like Tomlin to bring his calm demeanor to this contest. I predict a final score of Cleveland 4, Boston 1.