Chicago vs Pittsburgh MLB Odds Analysis

Posted by Aaron . on May 3, 2016 in

On Wednesday afternoon, the Chicago Cubs visit the Pittsburgh Pirates in a National League Central matchup. The Cubs (18-6) are off to their best start since 1907 and lead the division. The Pirates (15-11) are four games back in the division. The Cubs won the first game of the series on Monday, 7-2. Find out more about the updated MLB spread here.

Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates MLB Odds Analysis

When: Wednesday, May 4, 2016, 12:35pm Eastern time
Where: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
TV: RTPT, CSCh
Radio: KDKA FM 93.7 Pittsburgh
Live Stream: MLB.tv
MLB Odds: TBA
Pitching Matchup: Jon Lester (2-1, 1.83 ERA) (CHC) vs Juan Nicasio (3-2, 3.33 ERA) (PIT)

 

 

Why should you bet on Chicago?

What did the Cubs do during that 1907 season? They won the World Series. They have a +83 run differential through 24 games, so they are winning games by more than 3 runs apiece on average. That is the fourth best differential through 24 games since 1900, and the second highest since 1905. So are the Cubs a solid offensive team? You betcha. They send Jon Lester to the mound, who has had no more than two walks in any of his five starts this season. In four career starts against Pittsburgh, he has gone 2-2 with a 1.86 ERA. Andrew McCutchen, one of the most electrifying bats in the Pirate lineup, is only batting .077 lifetime against Lester in 13 at-bats.

Why should you put your money on the Pirates?

The Bucs send Juan Nicasio to the hill on Wednesday. He was terrific in his last start on Friday against Cincinnati, hurling seven shutout innings and fanning eight batters. The Pirates have red-hot Starling Marte in their lineup, hitting .327 on the season. He has 34 hits, fourth most in MLB and second most in the National League, and 13 of them have been for extra bases. He also has seven stolen bases, tops in the National League. He has five defensive runs saved in the outfield, second best in MLB. He has a .305 lifetime batting average against Chicago in 63 games, along with six home runs and 26 RBI — and 22 stolen bases. Lester is notoriously easy to steal on because of his reluctance to make a pickoff move to first.

Expert Pick and Final Score Prediction

This is a tough pick. Both pitchers are on collective rolls. However, the Cubs have done better at the plate so far, and so I’m going to predict a 5-3 Chicago victory.