Horse Racing Betting: 2021 Kentucky Derby Updated Analysis

Posted by Derrick Harper on April 21, 2021 in

A year after the COVID-19 pandemic turned the Triple Crown schedule upside down, the 2021 Kentucky Derby returns to its traditional place on the schedule. The long-awaited race is slated for the first Saturday in May, which falls on May 1 this year.

A horse race that needs no special introduction, the Kentucky Derby brings together the cream of the crop of the horse racing world, which produced one of the most exciting racing events of the year. And with it, it also offers plenty of betting opportunities for us to explore.

In today’s free horse racing betting preview, MyBookie brings you four selections that are worth keeping an eye on for the 147th edition of the “Greatest Two Minutes in Sports.” Let’s get right to it so you can wager against their Kentucky Derby odds.

2021 Kentucky Derby Update Betting Analysis – Horse Racing Odds

Essential Quality / Odds to win: +225

Essential Quality is five-for-five in his racing career and unsurprisingly the main favorite to win it all. Essential Quality is not only undefeated but has proven its worth on multiple distances.

What’s more, Essential Quality has already beaten most of his main competitors at the Kentucky Derby. Does that guarantee him success, however, is another question.

Winning the Kentucky Derby is not an easy task even for a horse as successful as Essential Quality. He definitely seems like the most likely victor on paper and has all the tools to win, but at +225, he doesn’t come off as the best pick.

Rock Your World / Odds to win: +500

Rock Your World was priced as high as +700 only a couple of weeks back but is not the second-favorite behind Essential Quality at +500. People clearly like this horse, and there are a few good reasons for that.

Like Essential Quality, Rock Your World is undefeated, yet he has one thing going against him. Rock Your World hasn’t started racing at age two, meaning that if he wins, Rock Your World would become the first horse in history – since the Triple Crown champion Justify – to win Kentucky Derby without racing at age two.

On a more positive note, Rock Your World will be led by Joel Rosario, who has already won the Kentucky Derby. What’s more, this horse is clearly comfortable racing on any surface.

The only big concern we have with Rock Your World is his ability to get ahead early. If he doesn’t do that, it could set him back greatly since he doesn’t do well when behind on the sand.

Regardless, a strong start would set Rock Your World up for success, and at this price, he’s worth a shot.

Known Agenda / Odds to win: +800

Led by jockey Irad Ortiz Jr., the three-time US champion, Known Agenda enters Kentucky Derby as the third favorite, priced at +800. Known Agenda has had a tough start of the season, but after Todd A. Pletcher added blinkers, Known Agenda started to show his true potential.

He’s undefeated in two starts, which includes a win at Florida Derby. That said, the Florida race didn’t feature any big names, so it’s hard to overvalue his success.

While there are a few questions about Known Agenda, the price makes it worth taking a shot with him. You won’t get a better price than how it’s now, especially on a horse bred by Todd A. Pletcher.

Medina Spirit / Odds to win: +1200

John Velazquez will look for his fourth Kentucky Derby win on Medina Spirit. A win would tie him for third-most all-time, while Medina Spirit’s trainer Bob Baffert aims for his record seventh title.

Medina Spirit has never been worse than second in five starts and has only been beaten by Life Is Good. The latter horse was the clear-cut favorite for Kentucky Derby before he got injured, which speaks a lot about Medina Spirit and his chances to succeed.

You might like the horse or not, but with Medina Spirit, you’re getting double digits on a horse owned by Bob Baffert. And if that doesn’t scream value, nothing does.

Nothing in life is guaranteed, but you can be sure you won’t be getting +1200 on Medina Spirit on race day.