3 Kentucky Derby Long Shots to Consider

Posted by Aaron . on May 4, 2016 in

If you are going to make serious run at the trifecta or the superfecta at the Kentucky Derby this year, you know that you need to pick the right long shot. Since 2001, there have only been two runnings of the Derby that did not feature at least one horse with posted odds of at least 20-1 in the superfecta. There have been quite a few years when there was more than one horse at those high odds in the superfecta.

So when you’re putting your handicapping plan together, looking at some of the horses that aren’t in the list of favorites can pay big dividends. These horses are long shots for a reason, of course, but with the right research (and the right instinct) you can end up with a big winner.

3 Kentucky Derby Long Shots to Consider



My Man Sam

He scuffled in the Blue Glass Stakes, and his wide swing at the top of the stretch seemed to doom him. Even so, the last two furlongs were his, and he almost came all the way back but settled for second, only 1 ¾ lengths short of Brody’s Cause. My Man Sam does not show a lot of early speed, and the far turn doesn’t show much promise for him either, but the homestretch brings out the very best in him. He only has four starts in his young career, but a similar finish could put him in the superfecta at Churchill Downs.


Suddenbreakingnews won the Southwest Stakes by a healthy 2 ¾ lengths thanks to an amazing finish down the homestretch, but the Rebel Stakes was a tough outing for him, as he got stuck behind some of the opposition, and the Arkansas Derby pushed him out wide for the rally, keeping him out of the winner’s circle. However, he has always finished no lower than second (except in the Rebel Stakes). This is a homestretch finisher rather than a far turn sprinter, and Churchill features a lengthy homestretch that he should eat up. He’s another horse who could storm back out of nowhere to end up in the superfecta.


Majesto started his career with three promising races, keeping his own pace up against Gettysburg, Destin and some other solid stakes horses. He took a win in his fifth start, knocking out Street Gray and Dig Deep, which is why he ended up in the Florida Derby, where he was the runner-up to Nyquist, an undefeated champion. At the Florida Derby, he saved some ground but did it on the dampest portion of the track. There had been a lot of rain that had puddled, but these did not make Majesto hesitate, and he was able to come in 3 ¼ lengths behind the winner. He has showed that he has great conditioning, and he can race inside other horses without losing any speed.