2016 Belmont Stakes Early Odds and Predictions

Posted by Aaron . on June 2, 2016 in

Thanks to Exaggerator’s upset win on a muddy track at the Preakness Stakes, 2016 will not see a Triple Crown winner. Exaggerator beat Nyquist for the first time in five tries, starting at the rear but then showing his incredible finishing power to win handily. Exaggerator had trailed Uncle Lino and Nyquit by as many as 13 lengths, but the white-hot pace at the end drained Nyquist, which is why Exaggerator was able to find that inside rail and shoot past Nyquist down the stretch. Now, with the Belmont Stakes a little more than a week away, let’s look at some early betting odds and predictions.

2016 Belmont Stakes Early Odds and Predictions

 

 

One thing for casual horse racing fans to know is that the Belmont Stakes is the longest of the three top races in the horse racing circuit. The Kentucky Derby was 1 ¼ miles long, with the Preakness a bit shorter at 1 3/16 mile. The Belmont is a full 1 ½ miles. This could benefit Exaggerator, as he can wait to make that now-legendary push, when the other horses will be more tired because of the longer distance.

Here are some of the early odds:

Exaggerator (13-8)
Nyquist (5-2)
Stradiveri (8-1)
Suddenbreakingnews (8-1)
Cherry Wine (10-1)
Lani (10-1)
Brodys Cause (14-1)
Unified (14-1)
Mor Spirit (20-1)
Creator (20-1)

While Nyquist is near the top of this table, one thing we learned from the Preakness is that it is possible to send Nyquist so fast out of the chutes that he is exhausted down the stretch. Of course, the muddy track could also have played a role, but this longer track means that Nyquist jockey Mario Gutierrez will have to make an important choice as to how fast to start Nyquist and when to let him have his head.

Are you looking for an intriguing choice down the table? Take a look at Cherry Wine. He started out ahead of Exaggerator, and then as things came down the stretch, he made a big run as well, taking second at the Preakness as he also blew by Nyquist.

So if I’m picking the top three, I’m liking a similar finish as what took place at the Preakness — Exaggerator, Cherry Wine and then Nyquist. While Gutierrez might make a different decision as to when to time Nyquist’s big burst, the longer track might mean that Nyquist will not have much left in the tank down the stretch. I’d be tempted to pick Cherry Wine to win, if only because of his impressive finish at the Preakness. If Cherry Wine had had that remaining 5/16 of a mile that he will have at Belmont, would he have passed Exaggerator? I suppose we’ll see at Belmont.