NASCAR Cup Series: South Point 400 Betting Analysis

Posted by Derrick Harper on September 24, 2021 in

The 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs continue with the 2021 South Point 400, slated for Sunday, September 26, at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway. It will mark the 30th race of the season, the fourth race of the playoffs, and the first race of Round of 12.

With only a few days separating us from the motorsports spectacle in Las Vegas, this is the perfect time to start looking at the NASCAR Betting Odds and find value picks for the 2021 South Point 400. To make the job easier for you, MyBookie brings you a free NASCAR betting preview, where we take a look at which drivers you should keep an eye on this weekend.

NASCAR Betting Preview – South Point 400 Analysis

Kyle Larson (+250)

Kyle Larson sits atop of the outright NASCAR betting odds as the main favorite to win the 2021 South Point 400. That isn’t too surprising, and while the odds aren’t great, you could argue that they represent the actual probability of Larson winning his seventh race of the season.

Larson is not only in excellent form heading into this weekend’s race but has also done well in Las Vegas in the spring race, where he led over 100 laps and eventually won. The 29-year-old has also done well at a similar track in Kansas, where he led for 132 laps – but finished in 19th.

The Hendrick Motorsports driver is undeniably the best driver in the field. However, the best drivers don’t always win, making it hard to make a case for him at the provided betting odds. Larson SHOULD win easily, but that doesn’t make him the best betting picks for the 2021 South Point 400.

Austin Dillon (+4000)

As the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series has taught us, underdogs can win, and there is no telling when and which of the next outsiders will stun the field and grab the W for himself. Longshots’ chances to win are slim, but at the right price, it’s worth placing down a smaller wager on them.

Betting on the outsiders makes a lot of sense in NASCAR. Namely because of cautions, which can quickly turn the races upside down – just ask Larson about what happened in Kansas.

One of the longshots who caught out attention for this race is Austin Dillon, who is priced as high as +4000. Dillon might not have achieved a lot of late, but he has won at Texas, so he has the talent and the car to compete for top spots.

What’s more, Dillon, unlike most other drivers, has nothing to lose, so he can gamble and take chances to win. He did so in Texas last summer, and so it’s fair to say that he can do it again.

Ross Chastain (+8000)

If Austin Dillon doesn’t cut it for you as a longshot bet, Ross Chastain might. Priced at +8000, Chastain’s chances to win in Las Vegas seem slim to none, but we would argue that he shouldn’t be priced that high.

Besides the aforementioned reason behind caution and how those can help underdogs outshine the favorites, Chastain is also a driver who isn’t afraid to go into a race with the “all or nothing” mentality. Like Dillon, Chastain has nothing to lose and could push himself and the car to its limits, hoping to upset the field and win his first race of the season.

Since Chastain hasn’t won a single race in 2021, he might not seem like the most appealing pick. However, he has finished third in Darlington and seventh in Richmond, which are great results.

Chastain has also had a car inside the top-10 in Kansas (similar race to South Point 400), which was a good position if there was chaos in the final laps. Chastain likely won’t win purely off his driving; however, he should be able to capitalize if something happens at the end of the race, which is a good reason to place a few bucks on him at +8000.