NASCAR Cup Series: GEICO 500 Betting Analysis

Posted by Derrick Harper on April 23, 2021 in

The NASCAR Cup Series’ run of three-straight short track races came to an end last weekend at Richmond. Now the drivers can get ready for some restrictor-plate competition at Talladega Superspeedway for the GEICO 500. Let’s have a look at the upcoming race so you can wager against their NASCAR odds.

NASCAR Cup Series – GEICO 500 Betting Preview

The GEICO 500 is slated for Sunday, April 25 at “Dega”, where the drivers will duke it out over 188 laps, divided into three stages. Stage one and two will complete after 60 laps, whereas the final stage will consist of 68.

The Talladega Superspeedway, while a very popular venue amongst NASCAR drivers for its high speeds. But it also bears an unenviable tag as an extremely dangerous track.

To date, there were three “Big Ones” at GEICO 500, most recently in 2017, when A. J. Allmendinger bumped into Chase Elliott on Lap 169. The incident resulted in a 16-car wreck, luckily with no serious injuries.

Although you can never know when the next “Big One” will happen at the Talladega Superspeedway, you can always be sure the track will produce an exciting race. And when there’s racing going on, there are also betting opportunities, which we will explore today.

Here are our three drivers to watch out for, including a longshot pick that could impress.

Denny Hamlin / Odds to win: +700

We rarely recommend favorites, especially when it comes to superspeedways. That is mainly because crashes are fairly common, and those can easily wipe out a large portion of the field.

That said, Hamlin has been extremely consistent this season. With the way he has been driving so far, it might be even worth backing him for any race – until he starts showing signs of slowing down.

Hamlin enters this race off a painful runner-up finish at the Toyota Owners 400, where he led for 207 laps but still lost. Regardless, his form is exceptional, and you can’t really make a strong argument against Hamlin winning here.

Joey Logano / Odds to win: +900

Priced as the second favorite, Joey Logano is definitely a driver to watch. Although Logano hasn’t won the last race at this track, he led the most laps (45) before crashing.

Logano has already won here in 2015, 2016, and 2018 and has since finished inside top-five twice. What’s more, he has finished inside the top-five in 33.3% of his 24 starts here.

With one win already under his belt in 2021, Logano will surely be eager to make it two this weekend.

Kevin Harvick / Odds to win: +1800

Kevin Harvick was priced as high as +2000 only a couple of days ago, and it’s easy to see why his odds are dropping. As one of the best drivers in the scene with such high odds, Harvick is a man you can’t ignore as a solid betting pick.

There are, however, a few things that work against him and should be noted. Still, we don’t believe those justify the high odds on offer.

Harvick hasn’t won at Talladega since 2010, which doesn’t look too good. Secondly, he hasn’t won a single race in 2021 and is coming off a 24th-place finish at Richmond.

Regardless, Harvick has been very competitive this season and has proven he can be solid at Talladega before. Harvick averages a 17.5% top-five finish in 40 starts and has led 264 laps.

Harvick might not be one of the favorites heading to Alabama, but at this price, he is definitely worth a shot. You just don’t pass +1800 on a driver like Harvick.